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released: 1 Dec 2008 author: Goss J

The National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission commissioned the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare to undertake projections of Australian health care expenditure using the Institute's disease expenditure projection model. The report projects health and residential aged care expenditure for the period 2003 to 2033. Total expenditure on health and residential aged care is projected to increase from 9.3% of GDP in 2002-03 to 12.4% of GDP in 2032-33. The report provides details of the five components of the projection model, presents projections for the 20 disease groups and estimates change in funding by the Australian Government, State and Territory governments and the private sector.

ISSN 1323-5850; ISBN 978 1 74024 862 4; Cat. no. HWE 43; 65pp.; Internet only

Full publication

Please be aware that the views expressed in the above report are the views of the author and should not be taken to be the views of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission, or the Australian Government.

Publication table of contents

  • Preliminary material
    • Half title and verso pages
    • Title and verso pages
    • Contents
    • Acknowledgments
    • Abbreviations
    • Symbols
    • Executive summary
  • Body sections
    1. Introduction
      • Why do we do expenditure projections?
    2. Methods
      • Projection model
        • Population projections
        • Disease rate changes
        • Volume of services per treated case
        • Treatment proportion changes
        • Excess health price inflation
        • Source of funds
        • Sensitivity analysis
    3. Results
      • Projected expenditure
      • Decomposition of expenditure
        • Cardiovascular disease
        • Injuries
        • Mental disorders
        • Dementia
        • Musculoskeletal disorders
        • Cancer
        • Diabetes
      • Sources of funds
      • Area of expenditure
        • Admitted patient services expenditure
        • Out-of-hospital medical services expenditure
        • Pharmaceutical expenditure
        • Residential aged care
      • Sensitivity analysis
    4. Discussion
      • Demographic factors
      • Non-demographic factors
      • Comparisons with other projection models
  • End matter
    • Appendixes
      1. Principal data sources for disease incidence and prevalence estimates
      2. Change in age-standardised incidence rates by disease from reference year 2003, 1994-2031
      3. Methods
        • Population projections
        • Projections of incident and prevalent cases of disease and injury
          • Projected per case of disease health care costs
    • List of tables
    • List of figures
    • References

Recommended citation

Goss J 2008. Projection of Australian health care expenditure by disease, 2003 to 2033. Health and welfare expenditure series no. 36. Cat. no. HWE 43. Canberra: AIHW. Viewed 29 May 2016 <http://www.aihw.gov.au/publication-detail/?id=6442468187>.

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