6. International comparisons

Population ageing is a defining characteristic of all developed and many developing nations in the latter part of the 20th century, and one which will continue into the 21st. In 1950, between 8% and 9% of the population in North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand were aged 65 and over. Today, that figure has increased substantially, but regional variations in rates of increase led to a situation where, by 1993, 18% of people in Sweden, and 16% in Norway and Denmark were aged 65 or older, compared to 13% in the USA and 12% in Australia and New Zealand.

Australia is relatively young among developed nations. The 14-country comparison in the table below reveals three broad tiers in terms of population structure. The oldest tier includes most of the European countries, with between 14% and 18% of their populations aged 65 and over. The second tier is a more eclectic cultural mix, but comprises a recognisably 'younger' set of countries with around 11 - 13% of their populations in this age group. The third tier, comprising the so-called 'late initiation' countries (where the decline in fertility which precedes population ageing did not occur until much later), is represented by China, with only 6% of its population aged 65 and over. Similar trends are evident with regard to the size of the population aged 80 and over in each of these countries.

If countries are ranked according to the projected rates of growth of their older population for the next 10 years, however, a roughly inverse picture emerges. Japan and China lead the field with annual average rates of increase around 3%, followed by Australia, Canada and Germany (1.7 - 1.8%), with virtually all the remaining countries at less than 1%. The rate of growth in the population aged 80 and over is quite high for Australia at 3.9%, similar to that for both Japan and China. Canada, too, can expect a fairly rapid growth in this age group, with a 3% predicted rate of increase over the 10 years to 2005. Thus, while Australia is relatively young in an international context, it is experiencing a comparatively rapid rate of population ageing. These changes have been a key factor in the restructuring and adjustment of both the income support and aged care service sectors over the last decade.

Levels of home-based and residential care vary significantly in an international context, but not necessarily in relation to the likely level of demand for such services in the population. Thus, while the Netherlands is a high provider of both home-based and residential care, it has one of the younger populations among European countries. Denmark and Sweden have both high population profiles and high levels of home-based care provision, as well as moderate levels of residential care. Germany, on the other hand, with a relatively old population, is a comparatively low provider of home-based care and an average provider of residential care. Australia, one of the youngest countries among those selected here, falls into the moderate provider category for both home help and residential care services.

International comparison of the age profiles and rates of increase for 14 countries (%)

References/further reading

Gibson D 1997. Aged care: old policies, new problems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (forthcoming).

OECD 1996. Caring for frail elderly people: policies in evolution. Social Policy Studies No. 19. Paris: OECD.

United Nations 1993. The sex and age distribution of the world population: the 1992 revision. New York: United Nations.

Data sources

Data presented here are drawn from Australian Bureau of Statistics 1996, Estimated resident population by sex and age, States and Territories of Australia, June 1994 and Preliminary June 1995. Cat No. 3201.0. Canberra: AGPS; Gibson 1997; United Nations 1993; unpublished data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.