Pancreatic cancer in Australia

Pancreatic cancer incorporates ICD-10 cancer code C25.

New cases of pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer was the 10th most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia in 2013. It is estimated that it will remain the 10th most commonly diagnosed cancer in 2017.

In 2013, there were 2,865 new cases of pancreatic cancer diagnosed in Australia (1,490 males and 1,374 females). In 2017, it is estimated that 3,271 new cases of pancreatic cancer will be diagnosed in Australia (1,722 males and 1,548 females).

In 2013, the age-standardised incidence rate was 11 cases per 100,000 persons (12 for males and 9.5 for females). In 2017, it is estimated that the age-standardised incidence rate will be 11 cases per 100,000 persons (13 for males and 9.7 for females). From age group 25–29, the incidence rate of pancreatic cancer is expected to generally increase with age.

In 2017, it is estimated that the risk of an individual being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer by their 85th birthday will be 1 in 65 (1 in 57 males and 1 in 73 females).

The number of new cases of pancreatic cancer diagnosed increased from 1,206 (700 males and 506 females) in 1982 to 2,865 in 2013. Over the same period, the age-standardised incidence rate increased from 10 cases per 100,000 persons (13 for males and 7.5 for females) in 1982 to 11 cases per 100,000 persons in 2013.

Deaths from pancreatic cancer

In 2014, pancreatic cancer was the 5th leading cause of cancer death in Australia. It is estimated that it will remain the 5th most common cause of death from cancer in 2017.

In 2014, there were 2,547 deaths from pancreatic cancer in Australia (1,335 males and 1,223 females). In 2017, it is estimated that this will increase to 2,915 deaths (1,515 males and 1,400 females).

In 2014, the age-standardised mortality rate was 9.3 deaths per 100,000 persons (10 for males and 8.3 for females). In 2017, it is estimated that the age-standardised mortality rate will be 9.8 deaths per 100,000 persons (11 for males and 8.7 for females). From age group 25–29, the mortality rate of pancreatic cancer is expected to generally increase with age.

In 2017, it is estimated that the risk of an individual dying from pancreatic cancer by their 85th birthday will be 1 in 71 (1 in 64 males and 1 in 80 females).

The number of deaths from pancreatic cancer increased from 797 (466 males and 331 females) in 1968 to 2,547 in 2014. Over the same period, the age-standardised mortality rate remained relatively similar at 9.6 per 100,000 persons (13 for males and 7.2 for females) in 1968 to 9.3 per 100,000 persons in 2014.

Estimated most common cancers deaths in 2017

Cancer type Number of deaths 2017 % of all cancer deaths 2017
Lung 9,021 18.9
Colorectal (bowel) 4,114 8.6
Prostate (among males) 3,452 12.7
Breast 3,114 6.5
Breast (among females) 3,087 14.9
Pancreatic 2,915 6.1

Estimated age-specific incidence and mortality rates for pancreatic cancer, by sex, 2017

This line chart presents the estimated age-specific incidence (solid line) and mortality (dashed line) rates of cancer name for males (blue), females (purple) and persons (green) in 2017. The age-specific incidence and mortality rates are shown on the primary (left) y-axis, with 5-year age groups from ages 0–4 to 85+ shown on the x-axis.

Source: AIHW [10].

Age-standardised incidence rates for pancreatic cancer 1982–2013 and age-standardised mortality rates for pancreatic cancer 1968–2014, by sex

This line chart presents the estimated age-standardised incidence (solid line) and mortality (dashed line) rates (per 100,000) of cancer name for males (blue), females (purple) and persons (green) over the period 1982–2013 for incidence and 1968–2014 for mortality. The age standardised incidence and mortality rates, expressed per 100,000 persons, are shown on the primary (left) y-axis. Years from 1968 to 2014 are presented on the x-axis.

Source: AIHW [10].

In 2009–2013, individuals diagnosed with pancreatic cancer had a 7.7% chance (7.7% for males and 7.6% for females) of surviving for 5 years compared to their counterparts in the general Australian population.

Between 1984–1988 and 2009–2013, 5-year relative survival from pancreatic cancer improved from 3.4% to 7.7%.

5-year relative survival from pancreatic cancer, by sex, 1984–1988 to 2009–2013

This line chart presents 5-year relative survival at diagnosis for pancreatic cancer by males, females and persons over the period 1984–1988 to 2009–2013. The percentage of survival is presented on the y-axis.

Source: AIHW [10].

Survivorship population for pancreatic cancer

 

The survivorship population is measured using prevalence data. Prevalence refers to the number of people alive who have previously been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer.

The prevalence for 1, 5 and 31 years given below are the number of people living with pancreatic cancer at the end of 2012 who had been diagnosed in the preceding 1, 5 and 31 years respectively.

At the end of 2012, there were 1,574 people living who had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer that year, 2,845 people who had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in the previous 5 years (from 2008 to 2012) and 3,916 people who had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in the previous 31 years (from 1982 to 2012).

References

10. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2017. Australian Cancer Incidence and Mortality (ACIM) books: Pancreatic cancer. Canberra: AIHW. [Accessed February 2017].