Projections methodology

Cancer mortality projections are a mathematical extrapolation of past trends. They assume that the most recent trend will continue into the future, and are intended to illustrate future changes that might reasonably be expected to occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period.

The nature of the projection method used and inherent fluctuations in both cancer incidence and mortality trends and population dynamics mean that care should be taken when using and interpreting the projections presented on this page. Specifically, the projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to allow for changes which may affect future cancer mortality rates, including:

  • changes in cancer detection methods, such as the introduction of new screening programs
  • changes in cancer risk factors, such as the introduction of vaccination programs or increasing obesity or smoking rates
  • changes and improvements to treatment, such as targeted therapies and emerging technologies
  • changes in government policy, economic factors, catastrophes, wars or epidemics.

For further infromation, see Supplementary data tables: 2014 to 2025.