This report presents projections of the incidence of end-stage kidney disease treated with dialysis or kidney transplantation (treated ESKD) for the period 2010 to 2020. This information is important for health service planning and resource allocation in the future. The projections are made by sex at national and state/territory levels, and for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients with diabetes when commencing treatment.

It is important to note that projections are not intended to function as exact forecasts, but to give an indication of what might be expected if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection time frame.

Overall picture

The incidence (number of new cases) of treated ESKD is projected to continue to rise over the next decade at the national and state/territory levels, for both sexes and across most of the age groups, and for those with diabetes.

Projections at the national level

  • The incidence rate of treated ESKD is projected to increase by nearly 80%—from 11 per 100,000 population in 2009 to 19 per 100,000 population in 2020. The increase is projected to be mainly among patients aged 70 years and over.
  • Diabetes is expected to contribute considerably to the increase in treated ESKD. The proportion of patients commencing treatment with diabetes is projected to increase to about 64% in 2020 from 45% in 2009.

Projections at the state/territory level

  • The incidence rates are projected to increase in all jurisdictions from 2009 to 2020; however, the rate of increase differs slightly.
  • The Northern Territory is projected to continue to have the highest incidence rate among all states and territories. However, its rate of increase (40%) is expected to be the smallest over the period 2009 to 2020.