Profile of Australia's population

This page was written by the Centre for Population at Treasury for the AIHW.

Key changes in Australia’s population

Australia’s population was 27.2 million at 30 June 2024, having grown around 1.4% a year on average over the past 3 decades, from 17.8 million at 30 June 1994.

Over this 30-year period:

• Net overseas migration (see glossary) was the main driver of population growth, and has increased from a net inflow of 47,000 people in 1993–94 to 435,000 people in 2023–24. The first net outflow of migrants from Australia (-85,000 people) since the Second World War occurred in 2020–21, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Natural increase (births minus deaths) has decreased from 135,000 people in 1993–94 to 106,000 people in 2023–24.
• Fertility rates (see glossary) have declined from 1.85 babies per woman in 1993–94 to 1.49 in 2023–24.
• The number of deaths (which has increased from 124,000 people in 1993–94 to 183,000 in 2023–24) has grown faster than the number of births (from 259,000 babies in 1993–94 to 289,000 in 2023–24), reflecting the declining fertility rate and ageing of the population.
• Life expectancy at birth (see glossary) has increased, from 75.0 years for males and 80.9 years for females in 1993, to 81.1 years for males and 85.1 years for females over 2021–2023.
• Australia’s population has grown older, with the median age increasing from 33.4 years at 30 June 1994 to 38.3 years at 30 June 2024 (ABS 1998, 2025a). The percentage of the population aged 65 and over has increased from 12% to 17% over the same period.

Australia’s population is concentrated in the Major cities, which are home to close to three-quarters (73%) of the total population. A quarter (25%) of people live in Inner regional and Outer regional Australia, with the remainder (1.9%) living in Remote and very remote areas (Figure 1).

Australia’s population is diverse. According to the 2021 Census, almost half (48%) of Australians have a parent born overseas (ABS 2022). In 2023, 31% of people in Australia were born overseas (Figure 1), a proportion which has increased by 8 percentage points over the past 30 years (ABS 2024a). At 30 June 2021, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (First Nations) population was 984,000, representing 3.8% of the total Australian population (ABS 2024c). For more information, see Profile of First Nations people.

Figure 1: Demographic snapshot, at June 2023 and June 2024 

Past population growth and trends

Australia’s population growth averaged 1.4% per year from 30 June 1994 to 30 June 2024 (Figure 2). Australia’s population growth was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the introduction of international border restrictions causing population growth to fall to a historical low of 0.1% in 2020–21. Following the easing of international border restrictions and the return of overseas migration in late 2021, Australia’s population grew by 2.5% in 2022–23 and 2.0% in 2023–24.

Between 1993–94 and 2023–24, natural increase has been relatively steady, while net overseas migration has fluctuated (Figure 2). Natural increase was the main driver of population growth until the early 2000s. However, since 2005–06, net overseas migration has contributed to the larger share of annual population growth. When averaged over the past 30 years, net overseas migration contributed to 57% of population growth and natural increase contributed to 43% of population growth.

Figure 2: Components of population change, Australia, 1993–94 to 2023–24

Capital cities have been growing faster than regional areas, with the share of Australia’s population living in the 8 capital cities increasing by 3 percentage points over the past 30 years to 68% in 2023–24 (ABS 2024b, 2025b). This is because overseas migrants tend to settle in cities and the younger age structure of cities results in greater natural increase. There was a brief reversal of the trend in 2020–21 due to border restrictions and lockdowns.

Net overseas migration

Net overseas migration was the main driver of Australia’s population growth in the years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Net overseas migration is the component of population change that has been most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The introduction of international border restrictions in early 2020 lowered net overseas migration to -85,000 people in 2020–21, the first recorded net outflow since the Second World War. Following the easing of international border restrictions from late 2021, net overseas migration grew to a record high of 536,000 people in 2022–23. Net overseas migration moderated to 435,000 people in 2023–24 but remains above pre-pandemic levels (ABS 2025a). Much of the elevated net overseas migration reflects a catch-up from the pandemic, as well as a surge in global demand for international study and a strong domestic labour market (Centre for Population 2024).

Natural increase

Since the late 2000s, natural increase has added on average around 150,000 people a year to the Australian population, although this has become smaller as a proportion of the population over time. Over the 30 years from 1993–94 to 2023–24, Australia’s total fertility rate has fallen from 1.85 to 1.49 babies per woman, and has remained below the replacement-level (see glossary) of 2.1 since the mid-1970s (ABS 2024b, 2025a). At the same time, life expectancy at birth in Australia has increased and is among the highest in the world. Despite improving life expectancy, the number of deaths has grown faster than births in recent years, reflecting an ageing population.

Although the number of births rebounded in 2021, fertility has declined significantly since the pandemic. In 2023–24:

• there were 289,000 births, a decrease of 0.6% from 291,000 in 2022–23, and the lowest number of births since 2006–07
• the total fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.49 babies per woman, from 1.55 in 2022–23 (ABS 2025a).

Compared with many other advanced economies, Australia experienced low mortality during the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as infection rates increased from 2022, deaths from both COVID-19 and other causes increased. In 2022, deaths were 11.7% higher than expected. This represents a total of 19,900 excess deaths in 2022. In 2023, excess mortality (see glossary) continued but eased to 5.1%. COVID-19 remains a significant contributor to excess mortality, with deaths from or with COVID-19 accounting for around two-thirds (67%) of excess deaths since the start of 2022 (ABS 2023b).

Reflecting this excess mortality, Australia recorded a decline in life expectancy over 2021–2023 for the second consecutive period. Since life expectancy peaked over 2019–2021 at 81.3 years for males and 85.4 years for females, it has decreased by 0.2 years to 81.1 years for males and 0.3 years to 85.1 years for females. This represents the sharpest fall in life expectancy in Australia since the 1960s. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to continue to result in life expectancy being below the pre-pandemic trend until 2028–29 (Centre for Population 2024).

Net interstate migration

Australia has high rates of interstate migration compared to other countries, although the rate has declined from peaks in the 1980s and 1990s (ABS 2018).

The COVID-19 pandemic reduced net interstate migration across Australia as state and territory governments temporarily restricted movements in some cities, regions and across state borders. There was a 23% drop in the number of interstate moves from 2018–19 (476,000) to 2020–21 (366,000). Interstate moves remain below pre-pandemic levels, with 368,000 interstate moves recorded in 2023–24 (ABS 2025b).

Australia’s population growth in a global context

Recent population growth in Australia has been similar to New Zealand and Canada. These 3 countries have smaller populations and a higher contribution to growth from net overseas migration, which means they have more volatile growth rates than their larger counterparts, such as the United States. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, higher rates of net overseas migration in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada resulted in their populations growing faster than the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union (Figure 3).

As a result of the pandemic, population growth in advanced economies fell in 2020–21 as international travel restrictions limited global migration. Australia, New Zealand and Canada experienced particularly sharp declines, with Australia’s growth falling to levels similar to the United Kingdom and the United States. Australia, New Zealand and Canada reopened their borders over 2021–22 and all subsequently recorded their highest population growth rates in decades. Since peaking, growth in each of these countries has now slowed.

Although population growth in Australia and many other advanced economies remains positive, some countries have begun to experience population decline, including China, the Republic of Korea, Japan and the Russian Federation (United Nations 2024).

Australia’s future population

From 2024–25, net overseas migration is expected to continue to slow, leading to population growth slowing towards its long-term trend. Figure 4 illustrates the population growth projections from the 2024 Population Statement. The 2024 Population Statement is the fifth edition of the Centre for Population’s flagship annual publication. Each year’s Statement provides insights on how the population has changed and projects future population changes.

Figure 4: Projected population growth and components, Australia, 2024–25 to 2034–35

Australia’s population growth is projected to be 1.6% in 2024–25, before gradually declining to 1.2% by 2034–35. By this time, Australia’s population is projected to be 31.3 million. Looking further ahead, the population is projected to continue to increase, reaching 41.2 million people by 2064–65 (Centre for Population 2024).

Net overseas migration

Following the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions from late-2021, net overseas migration grew quickly with the return of temporary visa holders, including international students, in Australia. Net overseas migration is forecast to be 340,000 in 2024–25 before moderating then stabilising from 2026–27 (Centre for Population 2024).

Natural increase

The total fertility rate is projected to fall to a record low of 1.45 babies per woman in 2024–25 before gradually returning to, and stabilising at a rate of 1.62 by 2031–32. The fertility rate is expected to return to this long-run rate as the proportion of women without children has not increased significantly in recent years. As births recover in line with this trend, from 288,000 in 2024–25 to 352,000 in 2034–35, natural increase is projected to stabilise, reaching 130,000 in 2034–35. Beyond this period, natural increase is projected to steadily decline due to the number of deaths growing faster than births as the population ages.

Total deaths are projected to increase from 186,000 in 2024–25 to 222,000 by 2034–35, in line with the increasing size and ageing of the Australian population. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to lead to higher mortality rates in Australia for those aged 50 and over until 2027–28, with excess mortality subsiding over the period before returning to pre-pandemic trends in 2028–29 (Centre for Population 2024).

Net interstate migration

The level of interstate migration is expected to rise steadily, increasing by 9.8% in 2024–25 to 422,000 moves, before reaching 446,000 in 2026–27. As a proportion of the population, this remains lower than pre-pandemic levels. From 2027–28 onwards, interstate moves are then projected to increase at a slightly slower rate than the growth of the population (Centre for Population 2024).

States and territories

Population growth is forecast to moderate in all states and territories in 2024–25: 

• Western Australia is forecast to be the fastest growing jurisdiction, driven by elevated net overseas migration.
• Tasmania is forecast to experience the lowest population growth due to its low share of net overseas migration and outflows of people to other states (Centre for Population 2024).

From 2025–26, Victoria and Western Australia are expected to be the fastest growing jurisdictions, driven by net overseas migration (Centre for Population 2024).

Capital cities and regional areas

Consistent with historical trends, the combined population of the 8 capital cities is projected to continue to grow nearly twice as fast as regional areas outside of the capital cities over the projection period (Centre for Population 2024). From 2023–24 to 2034–35:

• the combined capital city population is projected to grow from 18.4 million to 21.7 million
• the combined population of rest-of-state areas is projected to grow from 8.8 million to 9.6 million.

The population of Australia’s capital cities tends to be younger and age more slowly than regional areas. This is mainly because capital cities have historically attracted a larger share of overseas migrants, who tend to be younger than the overall population. In addition, younger people tend to move into capital cities from regional areas to pursue educational and job opportunities. While older people are less likely to relocate, when they do, they often move out of capital cities to regional areas.

The median age of people living in regional areas is projected to increase from 41.9 years in 2022–23 to 44.6 in 2034–35, almost twice as fast as the increase for capital cities (37.0 years in 2022–23 to 38.3 by 2034–35).

Where do I go for more information?

For the recent population projections, see the Centre for Population 2024 Population Statement.

This page was written by the Australian Government Centre for Population.