The demographic shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating the existing ageing challenge. Future population growth is projected to remain positive but slow over the next few years, falling from 1.3% last observed in 2019-20 to 0.1% in 2020-21 and 0.2% in 2021-22, which would be the lowest annual rates of growth since 0% recorded in 1916-17. The population is projected to reach 29.1 million by 30 June 2032.
Natural increase is projected to drive all of Australia’s population growth in 2020‑21 and 2021-22, with net overseas migration forecast to return to being the largest contributor to population growth again from 2023-24.
Net overseas migration remains essential for long-run population growth. In the absence of any net overseas migration, Australia’s population growth would turn negative within one generation, given fertility remains below replacement rates.
Fertility
Restrictions and economic uncertainty brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to contribute to lower future fertility as some families delay decisions to have children. The total fertility rate is assumed to fall from 1.65 babies per woman in 2019‑20 to 1.58 in 2021-22. However, around 4 out of every 5 babies who would have been born in this period are projected to be born within the next 10 years. As a result, the fertility rate is then assumed to rise to 1.69 by 2023-24. From then on, the total fertility rate is assumed to decline to, and then stabilise at, 1.62 babies per woman by 2030-31. This decline reflects the trend of women having children later in life, and having fewer children when they do.
Consistent with the observed long-run trend, natural increase is projected to continue to decline over the next ten years from around 137,000 people in 2019-20 to around 109,000 in 2031-32. This decline is the result of a smaller increase in the number of babies being born and a rise in the number of annual deaths due to an older population.
Net internal migration
COVID-19 restrictions, in particular the Melbourne lockdown from July to November 2020, have had an impact on net internal migration across Australia. The number of people migrating interstate fell 9% in 2019-20. Some states (such as Western Australia, and South Australia) have changed recent internal migration trends, driven by a falling number of residents leaving that state. From 2024-25, the level of interstate and intrastate migration is assumed to return to the 20-year historical average. Although noting, any future restrictions, including those implemented in 2021 following outbreaks of the Delta variant of COVID-19 are likely to impact net internal migration further.
Net overseas migration
Net overseas migration is the component of population change expected to be affected most by COVID-19 due to the effect of travel restrictions to stop the spread of the virus globally. Travel restrictions implemented in Australia from March 2020 meant temporary migrants, with limited exceptions, have not been able to enter Australia. At the same time, on-shore temporary migrants have departed Australia at close to normal levels. As a result, Australia has experienced, and is forecast to continue to experience, a net outflow of migrants — falling from an inflow of 195,200 people in 2019-20 to be around -97,000 people by the end of 2020-21, and -77,000 people in 2021-22 before increasing to 235,000 people in 2024-25.
States and territories
Due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on international movements, states and territories that have historically gained a large proportion of their growth from overseas migrants are forecast to experience a relatively larger fall in their population growth. Additionally, levels of interstate migration in most states and territories are expected to be lower due to the economic effects of the pandemic. Consistent with the national pattern, state and territory populations are projected to grow more slowly or have negative growth due to COVID-19. However, by the end of 2031-32 growth rates for state and territory populations are projected to be close to the rates that were expected pre-COVID-19. Although, as with internal migration, any future restrictions, including those implemented in 2021 following outbreaks of the Delta variant of COVID-19 are likely to impact net overseas migration further too.
For detailed discussion of Australia’s population from 1988-89 to 2018-19 see:
For the latest population projections see:
This page was written by the Australian Government Centre for Population.
References
ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) 2018. Population Shift: Understanding Internal Migration in Australia. Canberra: ABS. Viewed, 29 June 2021.
ABS 2021a. National state and territory population, December 2020. Canberra: ABS. Viewed 27 July 2021.
ABS 2021b. Provisional Mortality Statistics March 2021. Canberra: ABS. Viewed 30 June 2021.
ABS 2021c. Regional population, 2019-20 financial year. Canberra: ABS. Viewed 27 July 2021.
ABS 2021d. ABS Statistics, Migration, Australia, 2019-20 financial year. Canberra: ABS. Viewed 27 July 2021.
Centre for Population 2020. Population Statement, December 2020. Canberra: Centre for Population. Viewed, 30 June 2021.
Treasury 2021a. Budget 2021–22: Budget Strategy and Outlook: Budget Paper No. 1. Canberra: Treasury. Viewed, 30 June 2021.
Treasury 2021b. 2021 Intergenerational Report. Viewed, 30 June 2021.
World Bank 2020. World Bank Open Data. Viewed, 30 June 2021.