Contextual factors: Demographic factors

Context statement: Population size, composition and trends over time provide important contextual information. Population is used as a denominator in many of the indicators.

Australia’s population is projected to grow from 25.7 million in 2019–20 to 38.8 million in 2060–61. The 85 and over age group is projected to grow from around 500,000 people in 2019–20 to 1.9 million in 2060–61. The 0–14 age group has the slowest projected growth rate of all the age groups.

For more information, see Profile of Australia’s Population and AIHW Housing Data Dashboard.

Context statement: An indicator of population ageing and potentially increased need for welfare support. Population ageing is a worldwide phenomenon, and widely considered to be a driver of increased welfare expenditure.

The total dependency ratio for Australia is expected to fall from 1.83 people of working-age for every dependant (people aged under 15 and 65 and over) in 2019–20 to 1.59 in 2060–61. This is consistent with the faster growth in the number of people at older ages compared with people aged under 65.

For more information, see Profile of Australia’s Population.

For international comparison, see International comparisons of welfare data.

Context statement: An indicator of future requirements for culturally-appropriate welfare services, reflected in changes in the profile of the overseas born population. The rate and pattern of immigration is a factor in overall population growth.

From 1996 to 2020, the proportion of the total Australian population born overseas increased from 23% to 30%.

The number of Australian residents born in Southern and Central Asia has risen the most rapidly. Immigrants from North-East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa had the next highest growth rates for the period. From 1996 to 2020, the proportion of Australian residents born in Southern and Eastern Europe and North-West Europe declined.

Travel restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted international migration patterns. This information includes data up to 30 June 2020 and as such, covers the start of the COVID-19 pandemic period (ABS 2021).

For more information, see Profile of Australia’s Population.

For international comparison, see International comparisons of welfare data.

Reference: ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) 2021. Migration, Australia; Reference period: 2019–20 financial year. Canberra: ABS