Natural increase
Since the late 2000s, natural increase has added around 150,000 people a year to the Australian population. Over the past 30 years, the total fertility rate has fallen from 1.88 babies per woman in 1990–91 to 1.62 in 2020–21. Life expectancies at birth have increased and are among the highest in the world. Despite these improvements, the number of deaths has grown faster than the number of births. While the level of natural increase has been steady over this period, it has become smaller as a proportion of the population.
The full impact of the COVID–19 pandemic on births is not yet fully observable in official statistics. Early data suggests that the pandemic has not had an adverse impact on Australia’s births. The September 2021 release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ National, State and Territory population data shows that annual births registered over the year ending 30 September 2021 was 304,000, an increase of 7,700 births from the year ending 30 September 2020. This is similar to the number of births in the equivalent period in 2019 (304,000 births).
In Australia, doctor-certified COVID-19-related deaths in 2021 (149,000) were higher than the number of doctor-certified COVID-19-related deaths in 2020 (142,000) and the average number of deaths over the previous 5 years (141,000) (ABS 2022e). However, age standardised death rates (see Glossary) for total doctor-certified deaths in 2021 were below the 2015–19 historical average. This suggests that the increase in deaths in 2021 in Australia (when compared with 2015–19) reflects a larger and older population rather than an increase in mortality. Across the majority of 2020 and 2021, weekly deaths due to respiratory diseases were lower than the average from 2015 to 2019.
For more information on COVID-19 in Australia, see 'Chapter 1 The impact of a new disease: COVID-19 from 2020, 2021 and into 2022' in Australia's health 2022: data insights.
Net overseas migration
Net overseas migration was the main driver of Australia’s population growth in the years prior to the pandemic (Figure 1). The introduction of international border restrictions in early-2020 lowered net overseas migration to 193,000 persons in 2019–20, below the 5-year average of 227,000 persons. Net overseas migration declined further to -90,000 persons in 2020–21, which was the first recorded net outflow since World War II. Despite the easing of international and domestic restrictions, significant uncertainty remains around the extent to which future migration patterns will be affected.
Net interstate migration
Australia has high rates of internal migration (the number of people who move within Australia as a proportion of the total population), although this has been declining over time (ABS 2018).
The rate of interstate migration – or the number of people who move interstate as a proportion of the total population – tends to decline in times of economic shocks and recessions, and recover afterwards.
In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer people moved interstate in Australia, with a 9% drop in the number of interstate moves from 2018–19 (404,000) to 2019–20 (369,000).
Prior to the pandemic, Australia’s population growth rate was higher than that of most developed countries. In 2019 it was 1.5%, which is well above the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s country average of 0.5% (Figure 2).