Trends in deaths
Trends by sex
There has been a significant decline in overall death rates in Australia. Between 1907 and 2023, the age-standardised death rate for males fell by 73% (from 2,234 deaths to 605 deaths per 100,000) and by 77% for females (from 1,844 deaths to 431 deaths per 100,000) (Figure 5.1).
Death rates have historically been higher for males than for females; however, the gap has been closing over time. The difference between male and female age-standardised death rates was largest in 1968, when the rate difference was 642 deaths per 100,000 population. In 2020, the rate difference was 172 per 100,000. This was largely driven by the reduction in deaths due to cardiovascular diseases.
In more recent years, from 2021 to 2022, the difference between male and female age-standardised death rates saw the largest increase in a decade. The rate difference increased from 170 to 186 deaths per 100,000. In 2023, the rate difference decreased to 174 per 100,000. These changes were influenced by several factors, including:
- the COVID-19 pandemic, where higher rates of COVID-19 deaths were observed in males than females.
- sex differences in excess mortality experienced in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The decrease in death rate from 2022 may indicate a stabilisation of mortality rates post-pandemic, and a return to pre-pandemic trends.
For more information on the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, see COVID-19 in Australia’s health, Mortality rates stabilise as the emergency phase of the COVID-19 pandemic ends (ABS, 2024), and Measuring Australia's excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic until December 2023.
Figure 5.1: Age-standardised death rates in Australia, by sex, 1907-2023
Side-by-side line graph shows the overall decline in age-standardised death rates between 1907 and 2023 for males and females. The rate difference between males and females has reduced over this period.
Trends by cause of death since the early 1900s
The overall decline in deaths over the last century (see Figure 5.1) is associated with a range of factors:
- control of infectious disease and better hygiene and nutrition in the first half of the last century
- improvements in road safety measures, falls in smoking rates, and improvements in prevention, detection and treatment of disease such as cardiovascular disease and other chronic diseases in the latter half of the century
- large decreases in death rates since the early 1900s were also driven by the decline of infant and child deaths.
See more in Australia’s health 2022: data insights on Changing patterns of mortality in Australia since 1900 and Australia’s health 2024: data insights on The ongoing challenge of chronic conditions in Australia.
Infectious diseases were the leading cause of death in the first decade of the twentieth century, followed by cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases (Figure 5.2). In 1919, mortality due to respiratory diseases increased sharply due to the Spanish influenza pandemic. As infectious diseases declined, there was increased mortality from cardiovascular diseases and cancers from the 1920s and 1930s. Since 2013, crude mortality rates from cancer have surpassed those from cardiovascular diseases.
When accounting for differences in the population age structure over time, cardiovascular diseases have consistently been a leading cause of death for Australians over the last century, but age-standardised death rates have been steadily declining (Figure 5.2). Deaths from cardiovascular diseases peaked in 1968 at 830 deaths per 100,000 population (age-standardised rate) and continued their historic decline to 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, age-standardised rates for cardiovascular diseases:
- increased in 2021 and 2022, and
- decreased in 2023, with the lowest rate across the time series (115.4 per 100,000).
For more information on the impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular disease, see Heart, stroke and vascular disease: Australian facts report.
Cancer (all neoplasm) deaths, after adjusting for differences in age structure, peaked in 1985 (217 deaths per 100,000 population) and have gradually declined to 149 deaths per 100,000 in 2023.
Age-standardised rates of deaths due to respiratory diseases, infectious diseases (excluding COVID-19) and injury and poisoning declined over the last century.
Figure 5.2: Crude and age-standardised death rates in Australia, by broad cause of death, 1907–2023
The line graph shows a decrease in the crude and age-standardised death rates over time due to infectious diseases, respiratory diseases and injury and poisoning. The age-standardised death rates for deaths due to cancer decreased but the crude rate increased.
Trends by cause of death in the past decade
With the exception of the emergence of COVID-19, over the last decade the 10 leading causes of death for males and females have generally been the same, albeit with different rankings (Figure 5.3).
For males, over the last decade:
- Coronary heart disease was the leading cause of death in both 2013 and 2023, accounting for 15% of deaths in 2013 and 11% in 2023.
- Dementia including Alzheimer’s disease had the largest change, rising from fourth to second place.
- The rankings for lung and colorectal cancer decreased.
- Cancers of unknown or ill-defined primary sites moved out of the leading 10 causes of death.
For females, over the last decade:
- Dementia including Alzheimer’s disease increased from second to first place, accounting for 10% of deaths in 2013 and 12% of deaths in 2023.
- Coronary heart disease and colorectal cancer fell in rank.
- Hypertensive disease moved out of the leading 10 causes of death.
In 2023, COVID-19 was the 9th leading cause of death for both males and females. For more information, see COVID-19 deaths.
Figure 5.3: Change in disease ranking and the proportion of all deaths for the leading 10 underlying causes of death in Australia, by sex, between 2013 and 2023
The bump chart shows that 8 of the 10 leading causes of death in 2013 were in the top 10 in 2023. COVID-19 and accidental falls moved into the leading 10 causes between 2013 and 2023.
Coronary heart disease (CHD) was the leading cause of death for persons across all years. While CHD continues to be the leading cause of death, the percentage of deaths due to CHD has decreased overall (from 13% of deaths in 2013 to 9.2% of deaths in 2023) (Figure 5.4). By comparison, the percentage of deaths due to dementia has increased (from 7.4% of all deaths in 2013 to 9.1% of all deaths in 2023).
CHD mortality rates declined by 34% between 2013 and 2023 after adjusting for age. During the COVID-19 pandemic years, the age-standardised death rate increased by 5.0% between 2021 and 2022 (which should be interpreted in the context of higher overall mortality in 2022, with two-thirds of excess deaths being associated with COVID-19 (ABS 2023)). However, rates declined by 12% from 2022 to 2023 and are now lower than the pre-pandemic years for both males and females (GRIM books, 2025).
In contrast, death rates for dementia have been increasing. Between 2013 and 2023, the age-standardised death rate increased overall for dementia including Alzheimer’s disease by 15%. For more information about dementia, see Dementia in Australia. There is an expectation that if mortality continues to follow expected trajectories, dementia will be the leading cause of death in Australia in coming years (ABS 2024).
The age-standardised death rate due to cerebrovascular disease decreased by 32% between 2013 and 2023, now lower than that of lung cancer (25.2 deaths per 100,000 and 25.6 deaths per 100,000 respectively).
Figure 5.4: Age-standardised death rates in Australia, selected leading causes of death, 2013–2023
The line chart shows between 2013 and 2023 there was an overall decrease in death rates of the leading causes of death, except for dementia including Alzheimer's disease.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2023). Causes of Death, Australia, 2022. ABS website, accessed 14 January 2025.
ABS (2024). Australia’s leading cause of death on the brink of change, Media release. ABS website, accessed 06 February 2025.