Demographics
Age
Return rate
The younger a person was at the start of their first supervised sentence, the more likely they were to return to sentenced supervision at some time before the age of 18 (Figure 1.2). It is important to note that people in the younger age groups have more time to return to youth justice supervision; those in the older age groups may turn 18 before returning to the justice system and therefore would not be captured in this analysis. The difference in the time available to return to supervision should be considered when considering the rate of return between age groups.
For young people whose first supervised sentence was community-based supervision, 9 in 10 of those aged 10–12 returned to sentenced supervision at some point. Of those aged 17 at first community-based supervision, about 1 in 23 (4.4%) returned before turning 18 years old (Figure 1.2).
The return rate pattern was similar to that where the first supervised sentence was detention. Almost all (97%) young people aged 10–12 returned to sentenced supervision while about 1 in 7 (15%) aged 17 returned. Note, however, that the return rate for young people aged 10–12 at their first supervised sentence of detention should be interpreted with caution, due to the small number of young people in this age group (Supplementary table S2).
Figure 1.2: Young people with more than 1 supervised sentence from 2000–01 to 2023–24, by age at first supervised sentence and type of first supervised sentence
This grouped vertical bar chart shows that the younger a person was at the start of their first supervised sentence, the more likely they were to return to sentenced supervision at some time before turning 18.
| index_community_detention | 10–12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First supervised sentence was community-based supervision | 89.5% | 78.5% | 66.4% | 50.2% | 26.9% | 4.4% |
| First supervised sentence was detention | 97.1% | 91.5% | 83.7% | 75.1% | 46.9% | 15.4% |
Notes:
- Data relate to young people aged 10–17 who were supervised from 2000–01 to 2023–24.
- The return rate for young people aged 10–12 at their first supervised sentence of detention should be interpreted with caution, due to the small number of young people in this age group.
- Younger age groups have more time to return to youth justice supervision, while older age groups may turn 18 before returning to the justice system and therefore would not be captured in this analysis.
- Northern Territory data was not available for young people who had a sentence start in 2023–24.
Source:
Supplementary table S2
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Data source overview
Incidence rate of return
As noted above, people in younger age groups have more time to return to youth justice supervision; those who turn 18 before returning to the justice system are not captured in these data. To control for the potential impact of age at first supervision on the likelihood of returning to sentenced youth justice supervision, an incidence rate of return per 1 person year at risk was calculated (see Appendix).
The aim of this analysis was to examine the impact of a young person’s age at first supervised sentence; by controlling for the amount of time they had to return to sentenced supervision. This analysis creates the effect where all young people are ‘at risk’ of returning for the same amount of time, which enables comparisons across age groups. The incidence rate of return analysis shows that for young people with a first supervised sentence of community-based supervision, young people aged 10-12 years were still more likely than other age groups to return to sentenced supervision. However, the difference between age groups was not as pronounced (Figure 1.3).
For young people with a first supervised sentence of detention, the incidence rate of return showed a different pattern to the return rate, with a relative increase for the oldest age group. The incidence rate of return was highest for young people aged 10–12 and lowest for young people aged 16 (Supplementary table S2a). The relatively high incidence rate of return for all age groups indicates that, of those young people who returned, most received another supervised sentence within 1 year of release (see Time to return). The incidence rate of return for young people aged 10–12 should be interpreted with caution, due to the small number of young people in this age group.
Figure 1.3: Young people with more than 1 supervised sentence from 2000–01 to 2023–24: incidence rate of return, by age at first supervised sentence and type of first supervised sentence
This chart shows that when a person had their first supervised sentence when they were young, they were more likely to return.
| index_community_detention | 10–12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Community-based supervision | 0.71 | 0.58 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.4 |
| Detention | 1.32 | 1.27 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 0.89 | 1.11 |
Notes:
- Data relates to young people aged 10–17 who were supervised from 2000–01 to 2023–24.
- The incidence rate of return for young people aged 10–12 in detention should be interpreted with caution due to small numbers.
- Northern Territory data was not available for young people who had a sentence start in 2023–23.
Source:
Supplementary table S2a
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Data source overview
Sex
Of the 39,972 young males and 10,635 young females who received a supervised sentence, males were 1.2 times as likely as females to receive at least one additional supervised sentence (43% compared with 36%). This pattern was the same for males and females with a first supervised sentence of community-based supervision.
Males and females had a similar rate of return when their first supervised sentence was detention (51% and 52%, respectively) (Supplementary table S1).