Stage at diagnosis
Cancer stage at diagnosis refers to the extent or spread of cancer at the time of diagnosis. The AIHW, Cancer Australia and state and territory cancer registries worked together to produce national population-level data on cancer stage at diagnosis for the 5 most commonly diagnosed cancers (breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancers and melanoma of the skin) diagnosed in 2011. These cancers were assigned a ‘stage’ from I to IV. The higher the number, the further the cancer had spread at the time of diagnosis. The national statistics on cancer by stage at diagnosis from the above-mentioned project remain the most recent available.
Collection and analysis of data on cancer stage at diagnosis enhances the understanding of the variation in cancer stage at the time of diagnosis and how it affects survival.
In 2011:
- most cancers were diagnosed at stage I or II (66%), with melanoma of the skin having the highest percentage diagnosed at stage I (78%)
- 12% of cases diagnosed with 1 of the 5 most commonly diagnosed cancers presented with a stage IV cancer
- stage IV cancer accounted for 42% of lung cancers diagnosed, which was the highest percentage of the 5 cancers.
Information on survival from cancer indicates cancer prognosis and the effectiveness of treatment available. Relative survival refers to the probability of being alive for a given amount of time after diagnosis compared to the general population (see Glossary). A 5-year relative survival figure of 100% means that the cancer has no impact on people’s chance of still being alive 5 years after diagnosis, whereas a figure of 50% means that the cancer has halved that chance.
During 2012–2016 in Australia:
- individuals diagnosed with cancer had, on average, a lower (69%) chance of surviving for at least 5 years after diagnosis compared with their counterparts in the general population (referred to as ‘5-year relative survival’)
- among people who had already survived 5 years past their cancer diagnosis, the chance of surviving at least another 5 years was 92%
- survival rates vary considerably between cancer types—cancers such as testicular, thyroid and prostate cancer have 5-year survival rates over 95% while cancers such as pancreatic, liver and lung cancers and mesothelioma have 5-year survival rates of less than 20%
- 5-year survival rates increased from 5 in 10 (51%) in 1987–1991 to nearly 7 in 10 (69%) in 2012–2016.
Survival by stage of diagnosis
The stage of cancer at diagnosis and subsequent treatment outcomes are important determinants of cancer survival. Five-year relative survival rates were highest for cancers diagnosed at earlier stages.
For the 5 cancers where stage at diagnosis data was collected in 2011, 5-year relative survival for:
- breast cancer in females at Stage I was 100%; at Stage IV it was 32%
- colorectal cancer at Stage I was 99%; at Stage IV it was 13%
- lung cancer at Stage I was 68%; at Stage IV it was 3.2%
- melanoma of the skin at Stage I was 99%; at Stage IV it was 26%
- prostate cancer in males at Stage 1 was 100%; at Stage IV it was 36%.
Deaths
It is estimated that, in 2020, around 48,100 people will die from cancer, an average of around 130 deaths every day. Males are estimated to account for 56% of these deaths.
In 2020, it is estimated the age-standardised mortality rate from cancer will be 150 deaths per 100,000 people; in 1982 the mortality rate was 209 deaths per 100,000 people (Figure 2). See Causes of death.