Women having their second birth vaginally whose first birth was by caesarean section

Caesarean section in a first pregnancy makes a second birth by caesarean section more likely. Repeat caesarean section and vaginal birth for women with a previous history of caesarean section each have associated risks and benefits. For more information, see Clinical commentary.

This indicator examines women having their second birth vaginally whose first birth was by caesarean section (VBAC).

Key findings

In 2023, around 1 in 9 women (11%) had their second birth vaginally after having their first birth by caesarean section. This proportion:

  • decreased slightly from 13% in 2007 to 11% in 2023
  • was nearly 3 times as high in public hospitals compared with private hospitals (14% and 5.2% respectively in 2023)
  • generally decreased with age, with the rate in women aged 20–24 (16%) nearly four times as high as in women aged 40 and over (4.4%).

The interactive data visualisation (Figure 12) presents data for women who had a second birth vaginally whose first birth was by caesarean section. Use the drop-down menu to view data by selected characteristics and the latest year button to explore data for 2023.

Figure 12: Women having their second birth vaginally whose first birth was by caesarean section

This data visualisation presents data on VBAC. Interactive charts show proportions for the most recent data and over time, for selected demographic and birth characteristics.

This data visualisation presents data on VBAC. Interactive charts show proportions for the most recent data and over time, for selected demographic and birth characteristics.

Clinical commentary

For women who have had a previous caesarean section, the choice for method of birth in their next pregnancy is either a trial of VBAC or a repeat caesarean section (RCS).

Caesarean section in a first pregnancy makes a subsequent caesarean section more likely, with 76% of women with a history of one or more previous caesarean section births, having a subsequent caesarean section (AIHW 2025). However, many women who choose to give birth vaginally after having had a previous caesarean section are successful (RANZCOG 2025).

Both RCS and VBAC are associated with benefits and risks. A successful VBAC is associated with the benefits of vaginal birth, such as a higher likelihood of an uncomplicated normal birth in future pregnancies, a shorter recovery, and lower risk of respiratory problems for the baby. Risks for the mother and baby when attempting a VBAC can include:

  • a chance of an emergency caesarean during labour
  • increased likelihood of blood transfusion
  • increased likelihood of uterine scar rupture (1 for every 103 to 500 attempts) – particularly if labour is induced – which can result in serious problems for both the baby and mother 
  • increased likelihood of an Apgar score <7 at 5 minutes
  • a potentially increased, but still low, risk of the baby dying.

The risks associated with an RCS include those associated with caesarean section as outlined in Caesarean section, as well as:

  • the increased risk of respiratory problems for the baby
  • the increased likelihood of complications in subsequent pregnancies 
  • the increased likelihood that all future births will be by caesarean section (RANZCOG 2025).

An individual woman’s preferences and risk profile will vary. Choice of birth option is best informed by discussion with maternity care clinicians with consideration of medical history, previous pregnancies, and availability of suitably qualified and trained staff and an appropriately equipped maternity unit (RANZCOG 2025).

Indicator specifications and data

Excel source data tables are available from Data.

For more information, refer to Data specifications and Methods.

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