Risk factors for heart, stroke and vascular disease
What is a risk factor?
Risk factors are attributes, characteristics or exposures that increase the likelihood of a person developing a disease or health disorder.
Many chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), share behavioural and biomedical risk factors. Modifying these risk factors can reduce an individual's risk of developing CVD prematurely and result in substantial health benefits by reducing illness and mortality rates.
Fixed risk factors cannot be modified. Fixed risk factors for CVD include:
- ageing
- sex recorded at birth
- family history of CVD (through inherited genes or through sharing an environment of risky health behaviours).
Other non-traditional risk factors such as living with a mental health condition can also increase the risk of developing heart disease (Heart Foundation 2025).
For information about population trends for key risk factors, see the risk factor dashboard.
View the risk factors for heart, stroke and vascular disease
Behavioural risk factors are health-related behaviours that individuals have the most ability to modify. Key behavioural risk factors for CVD include:
- smoking
- diet
- physical activity
- alcohol consumption.
Biomedical risk factors are bodily states that have an impact on a person’s risk of disease. Biomedical risk factors for CVD include:
- high blood pressure (also known as hypertension)
- abnormal blood lipids, including raised cholesterol
- diabetes
- overweight and obesity.
Some biomedical risk factors can be influenced by health behaviours. Others, such as type 1 diabetes, occur independently of behaviours.
Environmental risk factors relate to how our surrounding environments, both natural and built, affect our health. These include:
- weather and climate, including extreme weather events
- air quality
- water quality
- UV and sun radiation
- exposure to chemicals
- occupational exposure and hazards
- housing.
For more information see Environment & health.
Risk factors among adults with heart, stroke and vascular disease
This section compares risk factor levels among people who self-reported having heart, stroke and vascular disease (HSVD) and those who do not. Data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2022–24 National Health Measures Survey (see Technical notes for information about the biomedical data collected in the survey).
Higher levels of risk factors among people who have developed HSVD highlight the need for secondary prevention to reduce disease severity or the occurrence of additional cardiovascular events.
In 2022–24, many adults with self-reported HSVD also experienced other health risk factors or conditions, including:
- at-risk waist circumference (85%)
- dyslipidaemia (80%)
- overweight or obesity (80%)
- uncontrolled high blood pressure (33%)
- diabetes (25%)
- current smoking (14%).
After adjusting for different population age structures, when comparing adults with self-reported HSVD to those without HSVD:
- rates of overweight and obesity and at-risk waist circumference were 1.1 times as high
- rates of diabetes were 3.2 times as high
- rates of dyslipidaemia were 1.3 times as high
- rates of current tobacco smoking were 1.5 times as high
- rates of uncontrolled blood pressure were similar (Figure 1) (AIHW analysis of ABS 2025).
Figure 1: Risk factors among adults with, and adults without heart, stroke and vascular disease, 2022–24
Bar chart showing substantially higher prevalence of diabetes, current smoking and dyslipidaemia among adults with heart, stroke and vascular disease compared with those without.
| Risk factor | With heart, stroke and vascular disease | Without heart, stroke and vascular disease |
|---|---|---|
| Overweight or obese (b) |
75.3
(CI 67.6–82.9) |
65.8
(CI 65–66.6) |
| Uncontrolled high blood pressure (c) |
22.4
(CI 16.5–28.4 ) |
22.2
(CI 21.4–23.0) |
| Diabetes |
16.2
(CI 9.6–22.7) |
5
(CI 4.2–5.8) |
| Dyslipidaemia |
72.6
(CI 52.5–92.7) |
57.2
(CI 55.0–59.3) |
| At-risk waist circumference (d) |
74.7
(CI 67.4–82.0) |
67
(CI 66.2–67.8) |
| Current smoking |
18
(CI 11.6–24.3) |
12
(CI 11.4–12.6) |
| Risk factor | With heart, stroke and vascular disease | Without heart, stroke and vascular disease |
|---|---|---|
| Overweight or obese |
79.7
(CI 76.9–82.5) |
66.2
(CI 65.2–67.2) |
| Uncontrolled high blood pressure |
32.7
(CI 29.6–35.8) |
22.9
(CI 22.2–23.7) |
| Diabetes |
24.9
(CI 18.9–30.9) |
5.3
(CI 4.6–6.0) |
| Dyslipidaemia |
80.4
(CI 73.8–87.0) |
59.3
(CI 57.3–61.3) |
| At risk waist circumference |
85.2
(CI 82.9–87.6) |
67.9
(CI 67.0–68.7) |
| Current smoking |
13.6
(CI 11.1–16.1) |
12.0
(CI 11.4–12.6) |
- CI = A statistical term describing a range (interval) of values within which we can be 'confident' that the true value lies, usually because it has a 95% or higher chance of doing so.
- Percentages are calculated using risk factor–specific denominators, as eligibility and data availability vary between measures (for example, fasting blood samples were required for dyslipidemia estimates).
- The ABS 2022–24 National Health Survey uses the Standard for Sex, Gender, Variations of Sex Characteristics and Sexual Orientation Variables, 2020 to collect the Sex at birth variable used in this data table. Due to small numbers and the need to protect privacy, people who reported sex at birth as a term other than male or female are not reported separately or included in the total Persons category. Sex recorded at birth refers to what was determined by sex characteristics observed at birth or infancy.
- In 2022–24, 39% of respondents aged 18 years and over did not have their height, weight or both measured. For these respondents, imputation was used to obtain waist circumference and BMI scores.
- In 2022–24, 28% of respondents aged 5 years over participated in the biomedical component, and not all provided fasting blood and urine samples. Missing biomedical data was not imputed. Results should be interpreted with this in mind. For more information about how measures were derived, see National Health Measures Survey methodology.
(a) Age-standardised to the 2001 Australian Standard Population.
(b) Overweight or obese defined as a Body Mass Index (kg/m²) ≥ 25.
(c) Uncontrolled high blood pressure is defined as measured systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg or more, or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mmHg or more.
(d) At-risk waist circumference defined as a measured waist circumference greater than 94 cm for men and 80 cm for women.
Source:
AIHW analysis of ABS 2025.
Absolute cardiovascular risk
A person’s risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) depends on the combined effect of multiple risk factors. Absolute CVD risk assessment uses an individual’s risk factor data to calculate the probability that they will develop a cardiovascular event or other vascular disease within a specified time frame. The Australian CVD Risk Calculator is a tool recommended by the Australian Chronic Disease Prevention Alliance for health professionals to measure individual cardiovascular risk (ACDPA 2023).
For information about the estimated CVD burden that can be attributed to modifiable risk factors in 2024, see Burden of cardiovascular disease: Contribution of risk factors.
For more information on these and other CVD risk factors, see:
ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) (2025) National Health Measures Survey 2022–24, AIHW analysis of detailed microdata, accessed 1 December 2025.
ACDPA (Australian Chronic Disease Prevention Alliance) (2023) Australian guideline and calculator for assessing and managing cardiovascular disease risk, ACDPA, accessed 18 February 2026.
Heart Foundation (2025) Mental health and heart disease, Heart Foundation website, accessed 18 February 2026.