A6a Interval cancers

Box A6: Confidence intervals 

Confidence intervals (CIs) are presented in this report only for interval cancer rates. This is because it is deemed important to show the degree of error due to rare events in small populations to avoid potential misinterpretation of data and/or to present data consistently with data in other publications.

Where shown, 95% CIs can be used to determine if a statistically significant difference exists between compared values: where the CIs do not overlap, the difference between rates is greater than that which could be explained by chance and is therefore regarded as statistically significant. Because overlapping CIs do not imply that the difference between two rates is definitely due to chance, it can only be stated that no statistically significant differences were found—and not that no differences exist. 

Judgment should be exercised in deciding whether any differences shown are of clinical significance.

Table A6.1a: Interval cancer rate for participants aged 50–74 screened in index years 2018, 2019 and 2020, by state and territory, first screening round, 0–12 months follow‑up

State and territory

Crude rate

AS rate

95% CI

NSW

7.0

6.4

4.5–8.7

Vic

7.9

9.6

6.2–13.9

Qld

6.1

7.3

4.4–11.1

WA

12.7

9.8

5.9–14.8

SA

4.0

2.5

1.0–5.2

Tas

3.8

4.2

0.4–15.6

ACT

6.9

8.6

0.3–28.7

NT

3.7

7.9

0.2–44.2

Australia

7.3

7.5

6.1–8.9

Note: Age‑standardised (AS) rate is the number of interval cancers detected per 10,000 person-years, age-standardised to the population of participants attending a BreastScreen Australia service in 2008; ‘95% CI’ are 95% confidence intervals.

Source: AIHW analysis of BreastScreen Australia data.

Table A6.1b: Interval cancer rate for participants aged 50–74 screened in index years 2018, 2019 and 2020, by state and territory, subsequent screening rounds, 0–12 months follow‑up

State and territory

Crude rate

AS rate

95% CI

NSW

6.0

6.0

5.4–6.6

Vic

6.2

6.1

5.5–6.8

Qld

6.0

5.9

5.2–6.6

WA

8.7

8.4

7.3–9.6

SA

5.8

5.9

4.8–7.2

Tas

6.9

6.9

5.1–9.3

ACT

5.6

5.1

3.1–7.8

NT

5.1

5.4

2.0–11.9

Australia

6.3

6.3

5.9–6.6

Note: Age‑standardised (AS) rate is the number of interval cancers detected per 10,000 person-years, age-standardised to the population of participants attending a BreastScreen Australia service in 2008; ‘95% CI’ are 95% confidence intervals.

Source: AIHW analysis of BreastScreen Australia data.

Table A6.2a: Interval cancer rate for participants aged 50–74 screened in index years 2018, 2019 and 2020, by state and territory, first screening round, 13–24 months follow‑up

State and territory

Crude rate

AS rate

95% CI

NSW

10.1

11.2

8.3–14.6

Vic

11.5

12.2

8.5–16.7

Qld

11.3

11.5

8.1–15.9

WA

12.8

10.8

5.5–18.0

SA

12.1

10.1

5.2–16.9

Tas

13.7

13.3

5.0–27.9

ACT

7.2

4.6

1.0–13.6

NT

11.8

7.7

1.6–22.6

Australia

11.1

11.3

9.6–13.1

Note: Age‑standardised (AS) rate is the number of interval cancers detected per 10,000 person-years, age-standardised to the population of participants attending a BreastScreen Australia service in 2008; ‘95% CI’ are 95% confidence intervals.

Source: AIHW analysis of BreastScreen Australia data.

Table A6.2b: Interval cancer rate for participants aged 50–74 screened in index years 2018, 2019 and 2020, by state and territory, subsequent screening rounds, 13–24 months follow‑up

State and territory

Crude rate

AS rate

95% CI

NSW

10.3

10.3

9.6–11.2

Vic

12.5

11.9

10.9–12.8

Qld

12.5

12.4

11.3–13.4

WA

10.9

10.4

9.0–11.8

SA

12.3

12.5

10.8–14.4

Tas

10.9

10.6

8.1–13.5

ACT

10.6

9.5

6.6–13.1

NT

7.9

7.1

3.0–14.3

Australia

11.5

11.3

10.8–11.8

Note: Age‑standardised (AS) rate is the number of interval cancers detected per 10,000 person-years, age-standardised to the population of participants attending a BreastScreen Australia service in 2008; ‘95% CI’ are 95% confidence intervals.

Source: AIHW analysis of BreastScreen Australia data.

Table A6.3: Interval cancers for participants screened in index years 2018, 2019 and 2020, by age group, all screening rounds, 0–12 months and 13–24 months follow‑up

Age group (years)

Number (0–12 months)

Crude rate (0–12 months)

Number (13–24 months)

Crude rate (13–24 months)

40–49

279

8.5

327

11.7

50–59

740

6.4

1,121

10.7

60–69

701

6.3

1,254

12.0

70–74

292

6.8

502

12.5

75+

96

10.0

141

15.8

Note: Crude rate is the number of interval cancers detected per 10,000 person-years.

Source: AIHW analysis of BreastScreen Australia data.

Table A6.4a: Interval cancer rate for participants aged 50–74 screened in index years 2018, 2019 and 2020, by state and territory, first screening round, 0–24 months follow‑up

State and territory

Crude rate

AS rate

95% CI

NSW

8.5

8.7

7.0–10.7

Vic

9.7

10.9

8.3–13.9

Qld

8.6

9.4

7.1–12.1

WA

12.7

10.2

6.9–14.1

SA

8.1

6.3

3.7–9.8

Tas

8.6

8.6

3.8–16.7

ACT

7.0

6.6

1.5–16.1

NT

7.7

7.9

1.1–22.4

Australia

9.1

9.3

8.2–10.5

Note: Age‑standardised (AS) rate is the number of interval cancers detected per 10,000 person-years, age‑standardised to the population of participants attending a BreastScreen Australia service in 2008; ‘95% CI’ are 95% confidence intervals.

Source: AIHW analysis of BreastScreen Australia data.

Table A6.4b: Interval cancer rate for participants aged 50–74 screened in index years 2018, 2019 and 2020, by state and territory, subsequent screening rounds, 0–24 months follow‑up

State and territory

Crude rate

AS rate

95% CI

NSW

8.0

8.1

7.6–8.6

Vic

9.3

8.9

8.4–9.5

Qld

9.2

9.0

8.4–9.7

WA

9.7

9.3

8.4–10.3

SA

8.9

9.1

8.1–10.1

Tas

8.9

8.7

7.1–10.5

ACT

7.9

7.1

5.4–9.3

NT

6.4

6.2

3.3–10.5

Australia

8.8

8.7

8.4–9.0

Note: Age‑standardised (AS) rate is the number of interval cancers detected per 10,000 person-years, age‑standardised to the population of participants attending a BreastScreen Australia service in 2008; ‘95% CI’ are 95% confidence intervals.

Source: AIHW analysis of BreastScreen Australia data.

Table A6.4c: Interval cancer rate for participants aged 50–74 screened in index years 2018, 2019 and 2020, by state and territory, all screening rounds, 0–24 months follow‑up

State and territory

Crude rate

AS rate

95% CI

NSW

8.1

8.1

7.7–8.6

Vic

9.3

9.1

8.5–9.6

Qld

9.1

9.0

8.4–9.6

WA

10.0

9.7

8.9–10.6

SA

8.8

9.0

8.0–9.9

Tas

8.9

8.7

7.2–10.4

ACT

7.8

7.1

5.5–9.1

NT

6.6

6.6

3.9–10.5

Australia

8.9

8.7

8.5–9.0

Note: Age‑standardised (AS) rate is the number of interval cancers detected per 10,000 person-years, age‑standardised to the population of participants attending a BreastScreen Australia service in 2008; ‘95% CI’ are 95% confidence intervals.

Source: AIHW analysis of BreastScreen Australia data.