BreastScreen Australia monitoring report 2025

Results

In 2021, the latest year of national data available in the Australian Cancer Database, there were 18,853 new cases of breast cancer diagnosed in women of all ages in Australia, which is 145.7 new cases per 100,000 women in the population (123.1 new cases per 100,000 women after adjusting for age to allow comparison over time or across population groups).

Of these 18,853 new cases, 11,540 (61.2%) occurred in women aged 50–74 (the target age group for BreastScreen Australia), which is equivalent to 319.3 new cases per 100,000 women aged 50–74 (311.0 new cases per 100,000 women aged 50–74 after adjusting for age to allow comparison over time or across population groups).

Incidence by age

In 2021, breast cancer incidence increased with increasing age, from 129.4 new cases per 100,000 women aged 40–44 to 427.0 per 100,000 women aged 70–74 (Figure 7.1).

Incidence by histological type

Invasive breast cancers by histological type are shown in Table 7.1.

Note that histological groupings for breast cancer have changed from previous reports, in line with the histology framework for breast cancer in the December 2024 release of Cancer data in Australia (AIHW 2024b).

In 2021, for women aged 50–74, ductal carcinomas were the most common breast cancer type, comprising 83.9% of all breast cancers; lobular carcinomas were the second most common, at 13.4% of all breast cancers.

Overall, carcinomas comprise 99.4% of all breast cancers, with sarcomas, other cancers, and unclassifiable cancers making up the remainder (Table 7.1).

Notes:

1. ‘Crude rate’ is the number of new cases of breast cancer per 100,000 women.
2. The histology codes that comprise each breast cancer group appear in Table Appendix B1.

Source: AIHW Australian Cancer Database 2021.

Incidence by state and territory

In 2017–2021, the incidence of breast cancer for women aged 50–74 varied between 255.9 and 351.0 new cases per 100,000 women. Note that data for the least-populated jurisdictions are subject to variation due to smaller numbers, even with 5 years of combined data.

Incidence by remoteness area

In 2017–2021, breast cancer incidence for women aged 50–74 decreased as remoteness increased.

After adjusting for age, breast cancer incidence in women aged 50–74 was highest for those living in Major cities at 316.5 new cases per 100,000 women and lower for those living in Inner regional areas and Outer regional areas at 313.6 and 306.9 new cases per 100,000 women, respectively.

The lowest incidence rates were for women living in Remote and Very remote areas at 275.7 and 257.3 new cases per 100,000 women, respectively (Figure 7.2).

Incidence by socioeconomic area

In 2017–2021, breast cancer incidence for women aged 50–74 decreased as socioeconomic disadvantage increased.

After adjusting for age, breast cancer incidence in women aged 50–74 was highest for women residing in least disadvantaged socioeconomic areas at 336.0 new cases per 100,000 women; thereafter, it decreased with increasing socioeconomic disadvantage and was lowest for women residing in most disadvantaged socioeconomic areas at 299.2 new cases per 100,000 women (Figure 7.2).

Incidence trends

Prior to the introduction of BreastScreen Australia in 1991, the age‑standardised incidence rate of breast cancer had increased from 183 new cases per 100,000 women aged 50–74 in 1982 to 221 in 1990.

Following the introduction of BreastScreen Australia, the age‑standardised incidence rate of breast cancer increased from 239 new cases per 100,000 women aged 50–74 in 1991 to 312 in 2001. From 2001 to 2012, the rate per 100,000 women remained relatively steady at around 300, before increasing to 330 in 2014, and remaining relatively steady thereafter until 2020 when it decreased to 300, before rising slightly in 2021 to 311 new cases per 100,000 women aged 50–74 (Figure 7.3).

Survival from invasive breast cancer

Survival in this report refers to ‘relative survival’; which is the probability of being alive for a given amount of time after a cancer diagnosis, compared with the general population, and reflects the impact of a cancer diagnosis. The source of survival data is the 2021 Australian Cancer Database which includes data from the National Death Index on deaths (from any cause) that occurred up to 31 December 2021, which were used to determine which people with cancer had died and when this occurred.

In 2017–2021, women diagnosed with breast cancer in Australia had a 92.7% chance of surviving for 5 years, compared with their counterparts in the general population. For the target age group (50–74), 5‑year relative survival was 94.3%.

Five-year relative survival by age

In 2017–2021, women aged between 40 and 74 had the highest chance of surviving for 5 years at between 94% and 95%, Women aged less than 40 had lower 5-year relative survival at around 90%, while women over 74 had the lowest chance of surviving for 5 years, falling below 90% (Figure 7.4).

Five-year relative survival trends

Between 1987–1991 and 2017–2021, 5-year relative survival increased from 75.1% to 94.3% for women who were diagnosed with breast cancer when aged 50–74 (Figure 7.5).

Conditional survival

Conditional survival is the probability of surviving a given number of years provided that an individual has already survived a specified amount of time after diagnosis.

In 2017–2021, when women aged 50–74 were first diagnosed with breast cancer, they had a 94.3% chance of surviving for at least 5 years after diagnosis compared with the general population (Figure 7.6). For those women who had already survived 5 years after being diagnosed with breast cancer, the chance of surviving for at least another 5 years (5-year conditional relative survival) was around 96%.

Prevalence of invasive breast cancer

Prevalence is the number of people alive after a diagnosis of cancer. It is related to incidence and survival: if incidence and survival are both high, prevalence will be high; if incidence and survival are both low, prevalence will be low.

The source of prevalence data is the 2021 Australian Cancer Database which includes data from the National Death Index on deaths (from any cause) that occurred up to 31 December 2021, which were used to determine which people with cancer had died and when this occurred. Individuals who have been diagnosed with cancer and are still alive contribute to prevalence data.

At the end of 2021, there were 53,236 women aged 50–74 alive who had been diagnosed with breast cancer in the previous 5 years and 96,054 alive who had been diagnosed in the previous 10 years (Table 7.2).

Prevalence by age is shown in Figure 7.7.

Note: Prevalence refers to the number of living people previously diagnosed with cancer, not the number of cancer cases.

Source: AIHW Australian Cancer Database 2021.